Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-16 15.488213 18.800137 22.465436 26.797795 31.752916 37.217682 43.673614
2025-11-23 10.265004 14.415495 19.514151 26.128747 34.366341 44.168484 56.585758
2025-11-30 7.926789 12.487262 18.554941 26.978988 38.111325 52.050348 70.525198
2025-12-07 5.991878 10.524982 17.017213 26.589680 39.899919 57.288286 81.197689
2025-12-14 4.783258 9.280819 16.159077 26.839668 42.335727 63.292369 92.967281
2025-12-21 3.550360 7.686704 14.474687 25.597693 42.444497 66.021156 100.372785
2025-12-28 2.972931 7.052167 14.141451 26.261527 45.235772 72.484532 113.037721
2026-01-04 2.455292 6.395319 13.647106 26.568026 47.444380 78.160409 124.781397
2026-01-11 2.062312 5.881701 13.304358 27.044140 49.886857 84.230753 137.269686
2026-01-18 1.773501 5.512495 13.155035 27.799464 52.773143 91.040822 151.036868
2026-01-25 1.408701 4.865124 12.369412 27.340449 53.625370 94.775951 160.388735
2026-02-01 1.178564 4.476283 12.026216 27.618390 55.673866 100.387431 172.678335
2026-02-08 0.938869 4.002592 11.471228 27.523426 57.221263 105.507598 184.786577
2026-02-15 0.704240 3.447266 10.638226 26.803345 57.641902 108.884754 194.424975
2026-02-22 0.600800 3.260964 10.611738 27.668210 60.907024 116.966822 211.607874
2026-03-01 0.459059 2.869276 10.009990 27.271045 61.829814 121.215720 222.888002
2026-03-08 0.370339 2.628543 9.736871 27.525981 63.952968 127.520610 237.606519
2026-03-15 0.254768 2.187548 8.824861 26.259274 63.078845 128.685193 244.062635
2026-03-22 0.212632 2.064894 8.778461 26.936359 65.992793 136.441659 261.449939
2026-03-29 0.170094 1.905473 8.587451 27.248952 68.192538 143.021631 277.077153
2026-04-05 0.138264 1.780885 8.475903 27.734500 70.756746 150.321011 294.085070
2026-04-12 0.115910 1.698094 8.481591 28.504714 73.936218 158.812240 313.296982
2026-04-19 0.082908 1.491801 8.017552 28.036661 74.512403 162.634825 324.736924